Venezuela in 2026, alas! Personal Opinion

 The situation is in Venezuela is a culmination of a prolonged and intricate interplay of politics, economics, and the society. Having been one of the richest Latin American countries thanks to large oil deposits, nowadays Venezuela is one of the brightest examples of how resources dependence, inefficiency of the governmental system, and international pressure can intertwine to create a national catastrophe that may last a long time.

The most fundamental problem in Venezuela is the fact that it is too dependent on oil. Over decades, the oil revenues kept financing social programs, subsidies and government jobs, establishing the system in which the state became the most important source of economic security. The oil prices in the world crashed in 2014, and the government income has dropped significantly, whereas spending on the population did not reflect the decrease. The authorities preferred money printing and tight control of the currency instead of economic diversification and this led to hyperinflation which swept away savings and wages to almost zero value.

Venezuela has been polarized severely since the times of Hugo Chavez. The Bolivarian Revolution that his name was supposed to strengthen the poor and to upset the dominance of the elite also undermined the institutions of democracy by putting too much power in the hands of the executive. These institutional weaknesses were further enhanced under the administration of Nicolás Maduro. Contentious elections, the blocking of opposition parties, and conflicts between state organs have destroyed the trust of the population and the international credibility. This has made governance a survival but not a reform exercise.

The failure of the economy has resulted in a humanitarian crisis. Food, medicine, and basic shortages became commonplace particularly during 2016-2019. Though in the recent years there is less shortage owing to partially dollarization and informal market activity, inequality has risen. Those who have access to dollars can live, and those who rely on bolivar incomes have a hard time. The state of public services like electricity, health services and water supply is still weak, especially in non urban areas.

Venezuela has also been made more complicated by international sanctions. The sanctions by the American government and the allies primarily aimed at pressurizing the government to change politically. Nonetheless, they have drawn limits to access of financial markets as well as oil income, which limits the capacity of the state to import vital commodities. Sanctions, in its turn, are a discourse employed by the government to avoid blame on domestic policy shortcomings. The truth is in between, either in that internal mismanagement and external pressure are complemented with each other.

Mass migration has also become one of the most noticeable effects of the crisis. More than seven million Venezuelans have fled the country and it has created one of the biggest displacement crises in the world. This exodus has transformed the Latin American societies putting a strain on the economic systems of the neighboring countries and also creating a global Venezuelan diaspora sending remittances back.

The future of Venezuela is unpredictable. Political compromise, institutional reconstruction, economic diversification and new confidence between the citizens and the state would be necessary in any sustainable recovery. Unless these structural problems are tackled, short term gains in the economy are not likely to be transferred into long term stability. The case of Venezuela is a warning sign of how resource wealth can never lead to prosperity without responsible governance and economic planning to share the wealth.

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